Dollar probability analysis
How often, over the last year of history, the dollar has moved as far as it is today from its 90-day high or low — calculated from real data, not guessed by an AI.
It is likely (69%) that the dollar sets a new 90-day low (currently ₡449.94) within the next 3 days.
Historical frequency across 250 3-day windows · typical move ±₡1.25 · as of September 12, 2026
Market context (AI-generated)
The persistent 5,251 million dollar surplus in bank windows and recent foreign investment announcements continue to saturate the MONEX market with excess liquidity. This high domestic supply maintains downward pressure on the ₡449.94 floor, even as global markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on September 16.
Descriptive statistic of past data; not a forecast or financial advice. See terms
How the calculation works
The percentage is a historical frequency, not a prediction: roughly the last year of 3-day windows is scanned, measuring how many times the rate moved at least as far as it is today from its 90-day high or low. A high percentage means that move has been common in similar situations, not that it is certain to repeat.
The news context alongside the number is written by an AI model (Gemini) with Google Search, from the already-computed scenario — it never receives the percentage, so it cannot invent or contradict it.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a prediction of the dollar's price?
+
No. It's a historical frequency: of the times the dollar sat this same distance from its recent high or low, what percentage ended up touching it within the next 3 days. It is not a guarantee or investment advice.
How is the percentage calculated?
+
The last 90 days define today's high and low. Then the last 250 3-day windows in the history are checked (the BCCR publishes a reference every day, weekends included), counting how many times the dollar moved at least as far as it is today from that high or low. That proportion is the percentage shown.
Does the AI decide the percentage?
+
No. The percentage comes only from the statistical calculation above. The AI (Gemini, with Google Search) only writes the news-context paragraph, and never receives or can alter the number — an LLM asked to state a probability isn't calibrated to anything real.
What does a "90-day high" or "low" mean?
+
It's the highest (ceiling) or lowest (floor) value the BCCR reference rate has had over the last 90 days. Costa Rica has had no fixed exchange band since 2015, so this recent range is the closest practical reference.
How often is this updated?
+
Once a day, shortly after the BCCR rate is published, via an automated process. It is not recalculated on every visit.
Important note
The data shown are referential from the BCCR and may vary with respect to the windows of commercial banks. Always consult with your financial institution before making high-value transactions.
Data frequency
Our system synchronizes the exchange rate every day to ensure you have the latest information from the wholesale market (MONEX).